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Sri Lanka Projects -> Asia Climate Digest -> October 2003 A look at climate, its impacts and outlook in Asia Updated October 2003 Highlights Near normal El Niño persisted through the last season in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and such conditions are very likely to continue at least until Spring 2004. In the Indian Ocean, temperatures cooled slightly below normal between August and September off the west coast of Sumatra, and around Madagascar. Most of the central Indian Ocean continues to display sea surface temperatures about 0.5 °C above normal -- the largest departures are near 1.5 °C above normal. The summer monsoon rainfall in India was near-normal in an overall sense with flooding in parts of Northern and Eastern India, Nepal and Bangladesh and deficits in the South-Western states of Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala. A northward shift in seasonal rainfall in eastern China's led to increased flooding in the Yellow and Xiliao river basins and dry spells in South-Eastern China. Unseasonable cool temperatures and a prolonged rainy season in Japan from July to September led to a 15% decrease in energy consumption. Seasonal climate predictions issued in October point to a strong tendency towards a warmer climate in most of South-East and South Asia from November to January and a weaker tendency in the February to April season to a warmer Southern Asia and colder North-Eastern Asia. The precipitation forecast for the first season show a tendency to near-normal climate with pockets of increasing rainfall tendencies in Sumatra and Maldives and decreasing rainfall tendencies in Afghanisthan, Philliphines and South-Eastern Indonesia. See IRI ENSO Update for details and latest information Table of Contents
Hazards
Afghanistan Seasonal rains in the southern and northeast provinces of Afghanistan contributed to flooding and dam ruptures, killing at least 124 people and hundreds of livestock. Light rainfall is not uncommon in the southern and eastern provinces as the South Asian monsoon typically extends into these areas during July and August. However, while the rains were not abnormal, they fell in many areas that also received heavy rain in May and June, particularly in the Panjshir Valley. The rain was welcomed by some as it brought an end to severe drought in other areas of the country. (IRIN, AFP, VOA, IFRC) Asia: South Monsoon rainfall is near- to above- normal throughout most of India so far this season. However, the rainfall was unusually heavy in some regions of South
Asia in July, including parts of western and northern India (including Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh), and southern Pakistan, where July rainfall amounts were in the top 10 percent of the climatological distribution. Many of the affected areas in western India and southern Pakistan have been suffering from long-term drought. China An apparent northward shift in eastern China's seasonal rains from their climatological summer position played a role in bringing heightened flooding and landslides to the Yellow and Xiliao River Basins and a dry spell to southeastern China. India Continuous rainfall in the states of Orissa and Chhattisgarh in eastern India caused flooding along the Mahanadi River. According to the UNDP, the flooding began on August 27 and affected 21 districts, 3.3 million people, 102,000 houses, and 4.2 lakh hectares of cropland in Orissa. Fifty eight deaths have also been reported. Concerns will shift to impeding the spread of water-borne diseases as the flood waters recede and people begin returning to their homes. (UNDP, UNDP, Reuters) Nepal Heavy seasonal rain continued in August in northwestern Nepal, bringing floods and landslides. Since the rains began in mid-June, there have been 244 deaths, 8700 families affected, and 3115 homes destroyed as approximately two-thirds of the country have been affected. Hundreds of acres of crops and hundreds of livestock have also been lost. Five-hundred people were reportedly killed in last year's monsoon flooding. Stronger relief networks have been credited with helping to keep this year's death toll down after some areas in the country received its heaviest rains in 30 years. (July CID Report) The affected districts have reported increases in cases of typhoid, encephalitis and dysentery and hundreds have been affected by eye diseases in the Morang district due to the polluted water. Seasonal monsoon rains in Nepal typically begin to shift southward during September. (AFP, OCHA, ReliefWeb, IFRC) September 2003Asia: South In its summary of the 2003 southwest monsoon season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported that for the country as a whole, monsoon rainfall was 102 percent of the long-term average, and the monsoon rains were well-distributed throughout the season and the country. 205 of the 267 meteorological districts affected by moderate to severe drought in 2002 received good rainfall in the 2003 monsoon season, including the states of Gujarat, Orissa, and most of Rajasthan. Drought conditions continue, however, in the southwestern states of Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Kerala.
China Heavy rainfall since August (Sept 2003 precipitation percentile map) has caused flooding in the Yellow River (Huang He) basin of China. Many flood reports came from locations along the Wei River, a tributary of the Huang He. Xinhua reported that over 100,000 villagers in Henan and Shandong provinces were affected, and US$1.2 million from the ministries of finance and civil affairs were spent on flood relief in two counties in these provinces. 300,000 people in Weinan city in Shaanxi province were relocated due to flooding (AFP). A report in mid-September indicated that flooding in the province of Shaanxi had caused 64 deaths and left 59 people missing. Over 200,000 people along the Wei River were homeless after the worst flooding since 1981. In this instance 130,000 hectares of crops were destroyed and estimated losses came to US$717 million (DPA). Approximately 5000 protesters attacked the civil affairs office in Hua County in Shaanxi on September 4th and 5th and took relief supplies after the flooding along the Wei River. The flooding affected an estimated 4.9 million people, and 46,000 homes were destroyed (AFP). The Chinese government reported that 676 people had been killed by flooding in China in the first seven months of 2003 (Reuters, CRED flood statistics for China)
Agriculture
Timor-Leste Prolonged dry conditions and a delayed onset of rains earlier this year are affecting
agriculture and food security in Timor-Leste. These factors played a significant role
in a 30 percent drop in corn production this year and an overall food production shortfall of
21 percent. According to Radio Australia, 1 in 6 people are facing a food crisis.
Malnutrition has become widespread as 43 percent of children under 5 are underweight and
40 percent of the population is consuming less than the minimum amount of calories
required per day. Hunger season survival tactics, such as eating wild foods and selling
cattle, have begun earlier than their usual November start. In particular, many families are without seeds for the next planting because they were needed as a food source.
The highland areas in the north have felt the worst effects because there is very
little other source of food besides subsistence farming in those areas. The WFP is giving
aid to nearly 25,000 families during the pre-harvest hunger season (November-March) and
the FAO is giving 12,000 families seeds, fertilizer, and tools for the next harvest. (UNWire, WFP, AusAID, Government of Timor-Leste)
Health
Pakistan The impacts of flood waters in the provinces of Sindh and Balochistan in southern Pakistan continued through August. Government and NGO estimates indicated that approximately 1,000,000 people were affected, 220-300 people died, and 142,000 hectares of cropland were lost when the region received its highest rainfall totals in a decade. (July CID Report) While the government has received considerable praise on their response to the crisis, aid has also come from the WFP, UNICEF, and other NGOs. Concerns have now shifted to the dangers of receding flood waters, primarily water-borne diseases and other health problems related to shortage of food and clean water. Medical teams have been mainly treating cases of malaria, typhoid, and diarrhea. (Disaster Relief, IRIN, IRIN, IRIN) September 2003India The stronger-than-normal monsoon rains have provided ample breeding grounds for mosquito vectors throughout many regions of India. The northern Indian state of Uttar Pradesh has reported at least 63 deaths, mostly children, from mosquito-borne Japanese encephalitis; at least 425 cases have been registered. Dengue outbreaks have left 80 dead and 4720 infected in India during the last 3 months, particularly in the states of Gujarat, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh and New Delhi. The southern state of Kerala has been hardest hit with 3155 cases and 63 deaths. (ProMED, ProMED) Energy
Japan A prolonged rainy season and cooler than normal temperatures during July are being blamed for hurting certain sectors of the Japanese economy, including breweries, amusement parks, and retailers selling air conditioners and women's clothing. The low temperatures have also led to a decrease in energy consumption of more than 15 percent in July compared to July 2002, which was welcomed by officials at the Tokyo Electric Power Company. The company had feared that power outages would be a possibility during the period of peak demand in the summer. Throughout most of Honshu, and particularly in the northern region of Tohoku, average temperatures and hours of sunshine have been well below normal while precipitation amounts have been well above normal (JMA map). Average high temperatures in Tohoku were about 5 deg. C below normal from late June through the first half of July. Record low temperatures were reported in the region as well. (The Japan Times, The Japan Times, The Japan Times, JMA) Climate Summary
Precipitation
Oceanic Conditions
Precipitation Map, Temperature Map. Precipitation forecast
Temperature forecast
Compiled by Lareef Zubair and Jia Fang in consultation with the Climate Digest Team, based on material in IRI Climate Digest and IRI Map Room, and forecasts produced by IRI . Feedback: is welcome as to shortcomings and request for additional material. Send e-mail to
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