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Climate Update for Asia
A look at climate, its impacts and outlook in Asia

Updated January 2003

Highlights

The El Niño event in the Eastern Pacific Ocean continues to be the dominating influence on global seasonal climate especially in the tropics. The Indian Ocean too has warmed up in a pattern reminiscent of other El Niño seasons. Rainfall in India and Indonesia has shown the typical drought patterns. The El Niño is projected to last for another six months. In Sri Lanka, heavy rainfall in the October to December period followed a drought as is typical of an El Niño. However, in the next four months the drought is predicted to be sustained.


Table of Contents


Climate Impacts

A list of sources for climate impacts information can be found at the end of the Climate Digest impacts page.

Hazards

    October

    India  Drought-induced agricultural losses and a lack of water have been prompting some people from the state of Rajasthan to migrate  to cities according to a BBC report. Several NGOs operating in the region, including "Save the Children" claim that the drought has led  to food scarcity in spite of food distribution efforts by the government. Reports of hunger-related deaths have been denied by state  government officials.

    December

    India  The western state of Rajasthan continues to feel the effects of this year's failed monsoon season and extended drought.   According to IFRC, as much as 75 percent of the crops in the state have been lost this year. About 4.8 million hectares of monsoon  season crops, worth about 910 million dollars have been destroyed, and groundwater levels have fallen, leading to shortages of  drinking water. Families in some locations have begun skipping meals or relying upon wild foods (IFRC). A 25 December report by  the UN Disaster Management Team has also noted that the current rabi (winter season) crop is also in danger due to unseasonably cool  weather and low soil moisture. This season, only 2,586,000 hectares were sown with rabi season crops compared to 6,097,000  hectares last year (UNDMT).

Agriculture

    December

    Pakistan  Two-hundred villages in southeastern Pakistan are feeling the effects of 3 years of scarce rain. Millions of acres have remained  uncultivated due to the lack of rain, and hundreds of livestock have either died or been infected with fatal diseases. Half of the wells in  the area are now dry and another 20 percent have turned brackish. Approximately half of the population have abandoned their homes in  search of food and water, many migrating to the Indus River belt. WFO announced in October that it would send food to the region.  (The Dawn, The Dawn)

Health

    November

    Taiwan  In its worst dengue outbreak since World War II, Taiwan has called in the military to assist with mosquito control efforts. There  have been 4464 confirmed cases of dengue fever, including 121 cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever and 13 deaths. A health department  spokesman attributed this year's warmer temperatures and abundant rainfall to the outbreak. (ProMED)

    December

    Bangladesh and India  Anomalously cold air from Eastern Europe and northern Asia made its way into northern India and Bangladesh in  mid-December. Thousands of people suffering from cold related diseases (e.g., cold, fevers, pneumonia, asthma, and respiratory  complications) in the 15 affected districts of Bangladesh have approached medical centres for treatments. Many in the affected area had  lost their homes in flooding earlier this year, making them more suseptible to the cold. (IFRC) The unusually cold weather is being  blamed for the deaths of 187 people in Bangladesh. Temperatures have dropped to 6 degrees Celsius in some areas, and as low as 3  degrees Celsius in the northern region of this country that usually enjoys a tropical monsoon climate. (AFP, AFP, IFRC)

    The cold wave also hit areas in northern India. Temperatures near freezing killed atleast 185 people, mostly homeless. The eastern  state of Bihar was most severely affected with 131 deaths, followed by Uttar Pradesh with 52 victims. (Disaster Relief)

    India  A cold wave in India, with temperatures near freezing, has killed at least 185 people, mostly homeless. The eastern state of  Bihar was most severely affected with 131 deaths, followed by Uttar Pradesh with 52 victims. (Disaster Relief, Reuters Health)

Water Resources

    November

    China  As an emergency measure, water from the Yellow River is being diverted to the northern coastal city of Tianjin in order to ease the local water shortage brought on by several years of drought. According to a story in the People's Daily, 350 million cubic meters or  water will be transferred to Tianjin by February 2003.

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Climate Summary
- October - December 2002

Precipitation

NOAA NCEP CPC CAMS_OPI precipitation anomaly (mm)

Click for options and more information

    - Go to Map Room for three month precipitation climatology and more data.
Temperature
NOAA NCEP CPC CAMS mean temperature anomaly
Click for options and more information
    - Go to Map Room for three month precipitation climatology and more data.

Oceanic Conditions

NOAA NCEP EMC CMB GLOBAL Reyn_SmithOIv2 Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly
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Forecasts

  • Maps for all four forecast periods (JFM, FMA, MAM, AMJ) can be found from the IRI forecast page.
  • A detail discussion on forecast methods, data and forecast maps is available on this forecast discussion page.
January - March 2003

  Precipitation forecast

    Discussion:   Enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation are forecast for all four forecast periods for southwestern Asia, and for the first two forecast periods for eastern China and Taiwan. Enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation are forecast for the Philippines and much of Indonesia for all four forecast periods, for southern India and Sri Lanka for the first three periods.

  Temperature forecast

    Discussion:   Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature are forecast for all of the four forecast periods in significant portions of mainly southern Asia and Indonesia. Enhanced probabilities for below normal temperature are forecast for the Aleutian Islands (southwestern Alaska) for all four forecast periods, and for much of Japan and adjacent land areas for just the first period due to below normal SST that is expected to persist in that region.

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April - June 2003

  Precipitation forecast

    Discussion:   Enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation are forecast for all four forecast periods for southwestern Asia. Enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation are forecast for the Philippines and much of Indonesia for all four forecast periods, and for southeast Asia for the second, third and fourth periods.

  Temperature forecast

    Discussion:   Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature are forecast for all of the four forecast periods in significant portions of mainly southern Asia and Indonesia. Enhanced probabilities for below normal temperature are forecast for the Aleutian Islands (southwestern Alaska) for all four forecast periods.

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 Other Resources

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- Masters in Health Informatics:In just a few short years, the field of health informatics has become integral to the delivery of quality care. Use of electronic medical record technology has evolved from a mandated requirement to an essential component of the clinical experience. Providers and patients alike have come to recognize and appreciate the value of digitizing healthcare data....Click here to read more

Archive


Compiled by Lareef Zubair and Jia Fang in consultation with the Climate Digest Team, based on material in IRI Climate Digest and IRI Map Room, and forecasts produced by IRI .
Feedback: is welcome as to shortcomings and request for additional material. Send e-mail to

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