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Sri Lanka Projects -> Asia Climate Digest -> April 2003 A look at climate, its impacts and outlook in Asia Updated April 2003 Highlights The El Niño of 2002-03 has now nearly dissipated to neutral conditions, and the remaining slightly warmer than normal sea surface temperatures are likely to decrease further during the mid-April to June period. The outlook beyond June 2003 is more uncertain. Based on the behavior of past El Niño events and current model forecasts, it is most likely that conditions will be near-neutral during the second half of 2003. Through the end of May, lingering climate effects associated with the nearly dissipated El Niño are expected to be weak. Although the El Niño is dying out, significant warming of the Western and Equatorial Indian Ocean is likely to have moderate impacts on the Asia climate. The climate models predict a tendency towards reduced rainfall in Central India, Bangladesh, Burma, Cambodia, Philliphines and in the northernmost islands of Indonesia. Wetter anomalies are predicted for Southern Indonesian Islands including Borneo and Java and the Central Asia region during the period from April to June. As for the upcoming Indian Summer Monsoon, the IRI assessments of climate simulations conducted in March point to a near normal-tendency with pockets of a weak wetter tendency in parts of Kerala and Bengal in the early summer and a larger region of a weak wetter tendency in the latter months of the Summer particularly towards Southern India and Rajasthan. Table of Contents
A list of sources for climate impacts information can be found at the end of the Climate Digest impacts page. Hazards
Pakistan Torrential rains along the south coast and northern Pakistan have claimed at least 100 lives and injured hundreds more by causing road accidents, damage to houses and
prompting landslides. (Map of affected areas) Pakistan's meteorological office described the mid-February rains in northern Pakistan as the the heaviest in 30 years with respect to their areal
coverage and intensity. The rains reportedly reversed falling water levels in the Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs, which were heading for the minimum levels at which dams
can operate to produce hydroelectric power and irrigate farmland, and brought relief to farmers by providing much-needed soil moisture before the onset of spring planting. (IRIN, DFO, IRIN, BBC, UNHCR, Reuters) Afghanistan Heavy rain brought flooding and drought relief to the province of Kunduz in northern Afghanistan. Reports indicated that over 2000 people were affected by the floods which caused 14 deaths, damaged 474 homes, and destroyed 168 homes. Eleven compounds of the agricultural department in Mazar were completely destroyed, according to the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). Despite the damage, the rains raised hopes of easing the four-year drought which forced hundreds of thousands of people from their villages in search of water and food and killed hundreds of people and thousands of head of livestock. (Reuters, IRIN) Agriculture
India The same cold wave that killed over 1700 people in India and surrounding countries exacerbated the impact of the failed monsoon of 2002 on India's crops. Frost has damaged a variety of standing crops, including the lentil, field pea, brinjal and chilli crops. The intense fog brought on by the cold wave, and the humidity that came with it, have kept much of the wheat crop from getting enough sunlight. The combination of dense fog, low sunshine and high humidity is "a matter of [large] concern" because it is "very conducive" for the appearance of aphids in sugarcane and mustard and late blight in potato, according to the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR). (Financial Express, AP, Business Line) Mongolia The IFRC reported that the situation in Mongolia is worsening as, for the fourth consecutive year, the region has been hit by severe snow storms. This has complicated the effects of the 3 previous drought/dzud cycles (2000, 2001, 2002). Some 665,000 people, or 133,000 families, in 17 of Mongolia's 21 provinces have been severely affected by this year's dzud. Since the end of December, blizzards have killed four people and 80,000 head of livestock have died of starvation and extreme cold. A drought this summer prevented a large number of herders from collecting enough hay for the winter and the winter started earlier than normal this year so many herders are running out of fodder. With new pastures not available until May many animals will not make it through the winter. The State Emergency Commission has forecasted that 2.3 to 2.5 million animals will die within the next 3-4 months. (IFRC, IFRC, IFRC, Reuters, DisasterRelief) Pakistan Pakistan is still feeling the effects of poor monsoon rains in July and August 2002, which exacerbated the five-year long drought in the southwestern province of Balochistan. The drought threatens the livelihoods of millions of farmers and nomads in Balochistan, where 22 of the province's 26 districts have been affected. The Pakistani government announced a US $33-million relief package to the region to provide immediate food aid, emergency health care, and fodder for livestock. The European Community's Humanitarian Aid Office (ECHO) will offer five million euro during 2003 to help the drought victims in Balochistan. The long-term drought has affected the water supply as well. Water supply to the Rawalpindi Cantonment Board has been reduced to half, owing to the depletion of water level in the Khanpur Dam. (Dawn, IRIN, Dawn) February 2003Afghanistan Unprecedented in the past four years of drought, heavy rain and snow in Afghanistan caused at least five deaths, but also raised hopes for a
successful summer harvest. (AFP) Rain and snowfall amounts in southern Afghanistan so far this year were 80 percent more than those from all
of last year, according to meteorological records by FAO. (Xinhua) Many say the rains could not have come at a better time as the wheat crops
are at germination stage, which requires adequate soil moisture for the crop's success. (World Vision) Mountain snow provides most of
Afghanistan's annual water supply and the recent rain and snow restored water resources to 75 percent of their normal levels. (IWPR) The
central, east, and northeast areas of the country, which produce one-third of its wheat, benefited the most from February's precipitation, though
seasonal precipitation remains well below normal. Despite the optimism and positive signs of drought recovery, more rain is needed to increase
moisture reserves for winter crops and water resources for irrigation systems. Wheat output will depend largely on moisture availability during
the critical reproductive to grain-filling stage in the spring. (USDA) China Scarce water supplies have caused some wheat-growing land to be taken out of production on the North China Plain, which accounts for 70 percent of the country's winter wheat harvest. While the precipitation amounts in January and February were only slightly below normal, there was not enough rainfall to erase the the 3 to 4 inch precipitation deficits in the Shandong and Henan provinces. Some farmers in the Yellow River valley were unable to plant their 2003/04 winter wheat crop because rainfall and soil moisture were inadequate. (FAS, AgJournal) Health
India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan Over 1,700 people died in Bangladesh, Nepal, and northern India's coldest winter in 40 years. Most of the deaths were children, the elderly, and those who were ill or had little protection from the cold. The cold weather has worsened the suffering of populations already severely affected by drought, in the case of India, and monsoon floods in Bangladesh and Nepal. Most of the 700 deaths in Bangladesh were reported in the northwestern district of Rajshahi and the southeastern district of Barisal. More than 900 deaths were reported in India, primarily in the northeastern states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. The cold wave also crippled the daily activities of thousands of people in the eastern and western Tarai districts of Nepal engaged in winter vegetable cultivation, where 60 deaths were reported, and the dense fog that accompanied the harsh cold in Pakistan led to traffic accidents that killed 16 people. Twelve Afghan refugees in Pakistan reportedly died in the first two weeks of January due to the unusual cold spell. There has also been an increase in cases of pneumonia, asthma and other respiratory ailments in the region. (IRIN, IFRC, AFP, Reuters, OCHA, ReliefWeb, CIP) February 2003Indonesia Hundreds of people have been affected by the mosquito-borne viral disease, chikungunya, as it has spread across the Indonesian archipelago during this unusually wet rainy season. During February 2003, 50 to 100 people suffering from chikungunya have been admitted to hospitals in Kupang each day. Chikungunya is characterized by high fever, flu symptoms and joint pains. (ProMED) March 2003Malaysia An unusually heavy rainy season and the appearance of the dengue virus serotype DEN-3 are being blamed for a sharp increase in dengue cases in Malaysia. There have been 11 deaths from dengue so far this year in addition to 3410 reported cases. (GoAsiaPacific) Climate Summary
Precipitation
Oceanic Conditions
Precipitation Map, Temperature Map. Precipitation forecast
Temperature forecast
Precipitation Map, Temperature Map. Precipitation forecast
Temperature forecast
Compiled by Lareef Zubair and Jia Fang in consultation with the Climate Digest Team, based on material in IRI Climate Digest and IRI Map Room, and forecasts produced by IRI . Feedback: is welcome as to shortcomings and request for additional material. Send e-mail to
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